Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008420 0.009501 0.010670 0.012028 0.013562 0.015243 0.017225
2025-12-21 0.006467 0.007900 0.009577 0.011687 0.014273 0.017343 0.021271
2025-12-28 0.005683 0.007333 0.009373 0.012084 0.015599 0.020014 0.025996
2026-01-04 0.005069 0.006838 0.009127 0.012309 0.016630 0.022313 0.030382
2026-01-11 0.004621 0.006480 0.008979 0.012593 0.017702 0.024695 0.035040
2026-01-18 0.004140 0.006009 0.008609 0.012502 0.018206 0.026298 0.038717
2026-01-25 0.003767 0.005640 0.008331 0.012489 0.018787 0.028017 0.042667
2026-02-01 0.003399 0.005239 0.007957 0.012285 0.019039 0.029244 0.045953
2026-02-08 0.003152 0.004992 0.007785 0.012355 0.019695 0.031105 0.050348
2026-02-15 0.002898 0.004706 0.007523 0.012254 0.020058 0.032518 0.054121
2026-02-22 0.002751 0.004577 0.007492 0.012511 0.021006 0.034923 0.059704
2026-03-01 0.002490 0.004238 0.007092 0.012120 0.020837 0.035465 0.062169
2026-03-08 0.002290 0.003987 0.006821 0.011933 0.021012 0.036621 0.065843
2026-03-15 0.002084 0.003708 0.006481 0.011597 0.020897 0.037267 0.068667
2026-03-22 0.002018 0.003670 0.006552 0.011991 0.022108 0.040337 0.076162
2026-03-29 0.001931 0.003585 0.006533 0.012214 0.023020 0.042933 0.082988
2026-04-05 0.001860 0.003522 0.006546 0.012495 0.024060 0.045837 0.090647
2026-04-12 0.001743 0.003365 0.006371 0.012405 0.024377 0.047392 0.095782
2026-04-19 0.001646 0.003237 0.006243 0.012393 0.024840 0.049258 0.101691
2026-04-26 0.001535 0.003072 0.006028 0.012190 0.024904 0.050333 0.106058
2026-05-03 0.001463 0.002981 0.005953 0.012260 0.025524 0.052569 0.113042
2026-05-10 0.001379 0.002857 0.005800 0.012160 0.025781 0.054075 0.118581
2026-05-17 0.001338 0.002818 0.005818 0.012415 0.026806 0.057261 0.128063